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MBS RECAP: On Guard For One Central Banker, Bonds Get Rocked By Another

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bond markets got sucker-punched today. Traders were on the lookout for Yellen's comments at a conference in London in the afternoon. Instead it was overnight comments at a conference in Portugal from ECB President Mario Draghi that did the damage. In not so many words, Draghi said Things are good in the EU. Recovery is strengthening Deflation being replaced by reflation Still need accommodation, so we'll be gradual in adjusting it Bottom line, this is early-stage taper tantrum talk--EU style. European bonds didn't like it one bit, with German Bunds rising roughly 13bps. Almost every last bit of upward pressure in US bond markets can thank the Europe for the inspiration. Once European markets closed, US bonds went sideways. It was clear there was some hesitation ahead of Yellen's...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Bounce Higher

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates saw their biggest bounce higher in more than a week today as domestic bond markets (which dictate rates) followed a much bigger move in European bond markets. The European move can be traced to comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi depending on the lender. In a nutshell, his comments sounded like the Fed's comments in the early days of the "taper tantrum" in the US (a big jump in rates that occurred when the Fed signaled its intention to buy fewer bonds). Translated into simpler terms , big central banks buy lots of bonds. When they do that, prices of those bonds go up and rates come down. Whatever bonds are being bought are those that react most to changes in central banks' policies. In 2013, it was the US Fed signaling less buying of Treasuries and MBS...(read more)

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Curtain May be Rising on Another GSE Drama

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Bloomberg is reporting there appears to be yet another plan in the long running reality show featuring the government sponsored enterprises or GSEs. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have been in government conservatorship since 2008, are the perpetual topic of congressional hearings, partisan and non-partisan legislation, shareholder lawsuits, and nearly constant rumors. The latest of the later, for which there appears to be substantiation, is that Senators Bob Corker (R-TN) and Mark Warner (D-VA) are working on a plan that would break each of the two, into several smaller pieces - although it is unclear what form those entities would take. Corker and Warner are both members of the Senate Banking Committee which has a hearing on GSE reform scheduled for later this week. The Bloomberg article...(read more)

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Signs of Deceleration Despite Record High Home Price Index - Case-Shiller

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for April set a record high , on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis for the fifth consecutive month. Some of the Case-Shiller numbers however, show some deceleration from their record pace. The month-over-month National Index gained 0.9 percent from March on a NSA basis compared to an 0.8 percent increase in March. It was up 0.2 percent after adjustment. The annual index was up 5.5 percent . The year-over-year increase in March was 5.6 percent, and that was revised down from 5.8 percent. The 10-City Composite Index gained 4.9 percent compared to April 2016, down from 5.2 percent the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.7 percent year-over-year gain, down from 5.9 percent in March. The 10-City index rose 0.8 percent...(read more)

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Investor Updates; Upcoming Training and Events

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Worries about Europe’s economies have, in most part, subsided. But rumors swirl regarding The Land of Lincoln. Illinois, it seems, isn't doing too well financially . Underwriters don't have crystal balls, yet must weigh income from Illinois pensions and government worker income, and the like. Concerns are growing that the US Virgin Islands could slide toward the kind of financial collapse that hit Puerto Rico since the USVI's government has struggled to meet obligations since a refinery closed in 2012, simultaneously doing away with the biggest private-sector employer and a crucial source of tax revenue. Lender news In job-related news, Nationstar Mortgage recently completed the transition to move all its customer service call center operations back to the U.S., "creating 500 new jobs...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Rattled by Draghi, Traders Wait For Yellen

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Members of the FOMC are constantly giving speeches and making appearances at various events. The only exception would be the "blackout period" where Fed speakers refrain from commenting on monetary policy in the week leading up to an official policy announcement. Apart from that, there are typically more than enough Fed sound bytes floating around to sate the desires of Fed prognosticators. Seemingly overnight, several Fed members have either changed their tune or have simply ramped up their dovishness . That's a kitchen-sink term for a set of policy beliefs that's generally bond-friendly. The most recent shift has been for Fed members to acknowledge the stubbornness of inflation and for some to suggest that further policy tightening isn't even justified at the moment...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Weak Durable Goods Helps Bonds Hold Gains

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Despite a super narrow range throughout the day, last Friday saw 10yr yields close at the 2nd best levels of the year. With that in mind, it wouldn't have been a surprise to see some push back into the center of the recently flat range today. In fact, that may well have been the case were it not for this morning's weak Durable Goods data. The Durables headline came in at -1.1 vs -0.6 forecast. The important "nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft" (or " Cap-Ex ") component was -0.2 vs a +0.3 median forecast. Bonds picked up just enough to put them in slightly stronger territory on the day, and there they remained--for the most part. Despite marginal weakness in the afternoon, 10yr yields hit their 2nd lowest closing levels of the year. All that having...(read more)

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Rates Still Flat at 8-Month Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, depending on the lender. Underlying financial markets continue moving in a narrow range--something that's not uncommon for the first few weeks of the summer. It's that market movement that can result in mortgage lenders issuing mid-day reprices. The more volatile and the bigger the moves, the more likely lenders are to reprice. Today saw zero reprices. Rates may have risen this morning were it not for weaker economic data . In general, weaker data tends to drive demand for the safe-haven of the bond market (which results in lower rates). This morning's Durable Goods data was noticeably weaker, and bonds improved immediately following its release at 8:30am. Though the improvement in markets was modest, it meant that most lenders were looking...(read more)

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Perceived Sellers' Market Could Lead to Inventory Gains

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Is there relief in sight for those oft cited, much maligned tight housing inventories? The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) sees a glimmer of hope in the responses it received to a recent survey. The Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey for the second quarter found 71 percent of homeowners think now is a good time to sell , which is up from last quarter (69 percent) and considerably more than a year ago (61 percent). Respondents in the Midwest (76 percent) surpassed the West (72 percent) for the first time this quarter to be the most likely to think now is a good time to sell. NAR says if homeowners act on this sentiment, there might eventually be an increase in real estate listings which have declined year-over-year each month for two straight years. However...(read more)

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